WASHINGTON D.C. — The World Economic Forum in Davos became a showcase of the chaos US Pres. Donald Trump has created, arresting Venezuela Pres. Nicolas Maduro – declaring himself the “acting president” of the South American nation, and his pointed threats against Greenland, including the imposition of tariffs on eight NATO allies that he later walked back.
If the American president faced a skeptical audience, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney proved the break-out star in Davos. Assailing the trend towards protectionism and erosion of multilateralism, he warned that “a world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile and less sustainable”.
“If great powers abandon even the pretense of rules and values for the unhindered pursuit of their power and interests,” Carney said whatever gains that can be generated will become harder to sustain. Sovereignty that was once grounded on rules, the Canadian leader predicted “will increasingly be anchored in the ability to withstand pressure.”
Carney envisions new economic and security alliances defined by a “commitment to fundamental values, sovereignty, territorial integrity, prohibition of the use of force and respect for human rights…recognizing that progress is often incremental, that interests diverge, that not every partner will share all of our values.”
Carney’s remarks come amid global anxieties spawned by an unbridled, apparently reckless America. Trump has never been shy about using the US military to promote his foreign agenda. He has unapologetically – sometimes even boastfully – struck hapless boats and boarded foreign tankers in international waters. (Also read: Donald Trump’s military parade and “Palace in the Sky”)
He bombed Iran and threatened to do it again following the violent repression of protesters. He has crafted a national security strategy that’s reminiscent of the early 1900s “gunboat diplomacy”, drawing a line in the sand in central and south America, shooing away competitors like China and Russia.
“I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace,” Trump texted Norwegian Prime Minister Joan Gahr Store because he did not get the Nobel Prize.
“What you see now is simply just everything could be justified in pure power terms,” observed Max Bergmann of the Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies. America, he added, is “acting like Russia” or China for that matter.
For so long, the underlying principle of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea was predicated on the notion of “because we can”. It pursued a strategy of “might makes right” – trying to edge out the Philippines and Vietnam out of their exclusive economic zones and building runways, missile sites and communications facilities on artificial islands to enforce their sham “Nine Dash Line” claim.
The West has emphasized the primacy of a rules-based order but at a time when those rules are being increasingly contorted or discarded, pundits, decision makers, planners and strategists in both Washington and Manila will have to take a long, hard look at what could come in their stead, as Trump continues to wreak havoc on the fabric of America’s post-World War II order.
Many have complained about how Trump often seems to play into the hands of the opposition. As the US president bellowed about how irresistible American military might is, China’s vice premier He Lifeng seemed to play into the anxieties of the Davos audience, offering instead to be the “world’s market” and “vigorously” expand imports.
After World War II, much of the world relied on the US to be the one constant fount of stability. Not anymore, with Trump’s erratic and often whimsical shifts in policy, from tariffs to its global outreach. China is charging ahead with its counter-messaging campaign, promoting itself as the “reliable one”.
Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping in April will be highwire act, with much of the world holding its breath. Although these state visits are largely choreographed after months of meticulous planning and negotiation, we just can’t be sure with Trump. No one can.