INSIGHTS FROM WASHINGTON | Washington’s Trump chaos clouds security package for beleaguered allies
By Rodney J. Jaleco | Date 02-13-2024
WASHINGTON D.C. — A bipartisan immigration and security assistance bill faces a bleak future, just days after it was unveiled in the Senate amid stiff resistance from former president and leading Republican nominee Donald Trump. It’s another illustration of how American domestic political intramurals are affecting American security interests in an increasingly dangerous world.
The Republican blockade imperils about $80 billion in military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan and Asia-Pacific allies that face the common threat from China.
The White House met with key Democratic and Republican leaders late last year to discuss ways to overcome opposition to proposed aid to embattled allies – House Speaker Mike Johnson declared there would be no aid bill without first addressing the southern border crisis, swamped by thousands sneaking past gaps in steel fences and barbed wire to apply for asylum in the United States.
Thus, was born the proposed “Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act”, hammered out by a small group of Democratic and Republican senators working through the holidays and weekends.
Just as the contours of a deal started leaking out, Mr. Trump also began spreading the word that he’d prefer the Republicans wait for when he’s elected to fix the southern border. His “preference” rapidly turned to an outright edict as subalterns allegedly threatened congressional holdouts.
The proposed measure is now on life-support but President Biden, in an address Tuesday, said he wasn’t ready to abandon it and break it down to its components – Speaker Johnson tried but failed to pass today a stand-alone Israel assistance bill on the floor – which may become inevitable gauging from the urgency the White House exudes to repelling the “axis of evil” Russia, China and Iran.
The beleaguered $118 billion package will provide $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel and nearly $5 billion for Taiwan and other allies. Curiously, language in the proposed measure specifies that aid earmarked for Taiwan is also to be shared with “foreign countries that have provided support to Taiwan at the request of the United States”.
It includes $1.9 billion to “replace through new procurement or repair of unserviceable equipment, of defense articles from the stocks of the Department of Defense” and some $2 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for Indo-Pacific allies.
The US sees Taiwan as a critical lynchpin of a strategy containing China’s break-out ambitions for the Pacific. And the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the Philippines has become a vital cog to that strategy, establishing a small but semi-permanent presence in Philippine military bases close to Taiwan.
A US Naval Institute (USNI) article last month revealed plans to upgrade Basa Air Base in Pampanga where the US has built new warehouses. In 2023, the US Air Force used for the first time the improved facilities – including the newly expanded and renovated runway – to fly in F-22 Raptors.
The US has reportedly spent $82 million for EDCA projects, which is expected to grow to $100 million this year – including upgrading the runway at Naval Base Osias and building a fuel storage facility and command center at Lal-Lo Airport in Cagayan – just about 500 kilometers from Taiwan’s southern coastline.
How deep or how long America’s political intramurals cut into its security priorities remains to be seen – which is why the world, especially her allies, can’t help but feel a little anxious about the “Trump effect”. The challenge for the Biden administration will be how to mitigate the chaos between now and November, assuming of course Pres. Biden wins.