The Art of the Deal: America’s Little Big Horn Gamble
By: COL Dencio S Acop (Ret), PhD, CPP | Published: April 1, 2025
Reading Time: 10 minutes
That the world today is in turmoil is probably an understatement! But, then again, the world has been unstable countless times over human history. It has had its ups and downs over the centuries. Times of peace and prosperity have been ushered in after years of war in various parts of the world. Such times have never been felt more collectively than during World Wars I and II and their aftermaths.
And yet, wars continued even after these global catastrophes that saw millions of non-combatants needlessly annihilated by combat power in both European and Asian theaters of war. There were the Korean and Vietnam wars, Middle East wars, Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, and now Ukraine. There may be others I missed. But the point is that wars will continue so long as the sun rises and sets.
Relative to this, we may not be too aware but the political changing of the guards has everything to do with regional and global stability. The generation of our parents lived through the consequences of decisions made by men like Adolf Hitler and who would forget him? The ongoing war in Ukraine is the aftermath of a decision made by Vladimir Putin, the leader of Russia. A socio-economic war still short of full-blown military conflict is presently waged by Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party.
Some leaders, like Rodrigo Duterte, did not only unleash genocide on their own people but also emboldened China in its illegal occupation of Philippine territory in the West Philippine Sea. Duterte is now being tried by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for crimes against humanity. The coming and going of leaders always have their impact on political stability both on their constituents and in the region.
To name a few, Japan, for instance, has had three leaders just over the past five years since Shinzo Abe left office and was later assassinated. South Korea just ousted its leader, Yoon Suk Yeol, after he tried to declare martial law. Australia will have a new leader come May.
America, the greatest country on earth, has made Donald Trump its new leader despite what it saw in his first term and in spite of his controversial character. It seems America and the rest of the world are in for a new deal. But, unlike what many might expect, it may not be an FDR deal they’ll see this time around. It’s still too early to tell as things continue to unfold. But, already many Americans and their allies around the world are not too happy with what they are seeing.
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Unless they soon witness wins they expect for America and themselves from Trump’s “art of the deal”, a “no deal” may yet characterize the American brand in these coming months or years impacting the world. Let’s take a closer look.
The first “no deal” is that billionaires are the political leaders and so “govern” their countries second but “grow” their wealth first. While there is nothing wrong with being wealthy, there is everything that is wrong with it when wealth gives rise to political power which in turn is used to pay back political debt at the expense of the national interest.
Now, what is the national interest? The greatest good for the greatest number still is perhaps the best definition there is. For instance, do the people governed still have lasting livelihoods, roofs over their heads, decent food on the table, affordable healthcare, social security in the twilight of their years, and protected from over-taxation and over-spending? Are living veterans and those who paid the ultimate sacrifice for America still respected and given due care? Are democratic principles, the bedrock of the American dream and brand, still sacred?
If we look through the political landscape in the United States or through the political horizons of the world, what do we now see? In Russia, the richest man is the leader who invaded Ukraine – Vladimir Putin. In supposedly socialist China, the wealthiest individuals are the members of the Chinese Communist Party led by Xi Jinping, now claiming the South China Sea as Chinese territory.
In America, the newly-elected leader is a billionaire – Donald Trump. Fourteen billionaires are in the Trump administration. Three of them – Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg – the richest persons in America, stood behind the newly-elected president as he was sworn in. Their presence at the inaugural seemed ominous for the ordinary citizens of America. Bernie Sanders has warned America against the oligarchy that has now descended upon a “once great nation”.
He said: “You want to know what oligarchy is?” It is when “the top 1% in our country now own more wealth than the bottom 90%”. Throughout the world, immigrants would dream of coming to America because in America, everyone is middle class. Forty-years since I last heard that, I’d now say: “Not anymore!” The problem with billionaires is that they are not supposed to be running countries.
The role of democratic governments is to level the playing field by taxing the rich to help the poor. Now, if you have those few with all the wealth of a nation also running it, then what do you have? A profound conflict of interest ensues. The concentration of economic and political power in one man, party, or cult becomes the nation. It also becomes the enemy of the people.
The second “no deal” is that the abandonment of the liberal moral order in favor of authoritarian material order will be America’s decay. And here, I am talking about integral truth order versus deep-fake disorder. You see, there is a profound difference between the bad pretending to be good, and the good just being good. America has always been “God bless America”.
Being the dominant ally following the victory of World War II, America became the world’s superpower. From that moment on, its manifest destiny made America feel responsible for leading the world towards “eternal” global peace if it was possible. The United Nations Organization was born from the ashes of that last great war. Democratic peace inspired America to preach democracy to all the nations of the world.
Indeed, many former colonies gained their independence and embraced the democratic order in the hope that by respecting their peoples’ human rights, the brotherhood of nations will prosper. The American pioneering spirit and moral order did spread throughout the world. After all, the best virtues and values known to man were never meant to be hoarded but to be shared.
For a time, the fruits from this wellspring of truth and hope bore unmistakable wins not just for America but for the world. There was the collapse of the Berlin Wall, for instance. At the core of it all, only the common value of truth shared by global leaders like Ronald Reagan, Pope John Paul II, and Mikhail Gorbachev could have made it possible.
Fast forward to today and what do we see? We now have before our eyes the greatest nation on earth turning its back to a century of painstaking global-building. It’s unbelievable and unimaginable but it is what it is. We see America abandoning Ukraine and its NATO allies in Europe in favor of Russia. We see America imposing a tariff war not only on China but its allies as well: Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc. We see an America dictating on allies to up their defense spending forcing them to do so because it was abandoning them.
American foreign policy is now two-faced, confusing not just the enemy but Americans themselves. While America warns China from attacking Taiwan, a SpaceX investment in China is simultaneously sending a mixed signal. As some US officials “encourage” defense against China in the Philippines, others tend to be “lukewarm”.
In the Middle East, there’s the Riyadh negotiations muddling through developments there also involving Russia and Israel. One thing may be clear though through these developments. Public problems at the national and global scales are being resolved through “the art of the deal”.
Whether they are effective or not remains to be seen. But this early in the game, the “art of the deal” may already be sparkling what could turn out to be the “art of war” nobody wants or is prepared for.
The third “no deal”, which is probably more accurately a “half-deal” is that America is consolidating its public and private power to defeat China. While Europeans may perceive America to be abandoning NATO, the move is a strategy to concentrate focus on the Asia-Pacific region. It is World War II part two and this time the priority is the Asia-Pacific theater of war. In every aspect of human existence today, the Asia-Pacific is the world’s center of gravity. Two-thirds of the world’s population and global markets lie in Asia in and around the South China Sea.
China, not Russia, is today America’s worthy adversary. China is America’s challenger for world supremacy. China is bent on “keeping” the Asia-Pacific region to itself repeating a once infamous phrase used by Imperial Japan: “Asia is for Asians”.
To solidify its hold on the region, China claims the entirety of the South China Sea as part of its territory backed unilaterally by its Ten Dash Line claim. America will have none of it. First, America already won its right to be in Asia following World War II. Second, a former colony and now close ally lies at the heart of the South China Sea: the Philippines.
The Philippines, along with Japan and Taiwan, are part of America’s “first island chain strategy” – a natural barrier that could be used to circumscribe China’s naval and air operations if war was to break out.
Third, America is committed to defending its allies in the region led by Taiwan and the Philippines. Fourth, China is viewed by the Pentagon as no longer just a “Pacing Challenge” – a long-term risk to U.S. influence, position, and power; but, a “Pacing Threat” – a direct, consequential, and near-term peril to U.S. security and values, and is bulking up its short-term strategy.
America sees China as nearing the tail-end of what has been a protracted campaign to win Taiwan by the first centennial anniversary of the Communist takeover from the Nationalists in 1949. The Chinese Communist Party is therefore doing all it can to retake Taiwan, thus far, short of war. America and China are on a collision course in Asia. The signs are all around us now.
Trump could redeploy the 20,000 US troops from NATO to the Asia-Pacific. He could follow-through with what his predecessor planned about moving 25,000 troops from the Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii to Japan or South Korea. US state and defense officials have been doing the rounds in Asia. In the Philippines, increasing US naval and marine presence or what is termed “prepositioned military equipment” is a fact.
America is also forcing the hand of allies to beef up militarily (by increasing defense spending) so that America can focus on China and so that America will not be the only free-world nation with the big guns relative to Russia, China, North Korea, and possibly Iran. Australia and South Korea, for instance, are already considering joining the ranks of the nuclear powers. Even Japan will be doubling its defense spending by 2027.
This brings us back to the issue about the billionaires in the Trump administration. America appears to be stepping up to the level of China which has managed to equal and even surpass America economically because it is the largest combined public and private organization in the world.
There are billionaires in China but they are state billionaires, not private ones. There is no private ownership in Communist China. All private wealth and talent are dedicated to the Chinese Communist Party which technically is China. America appears to now have a similar strategy of consolidating all American power, talent, and wealth to counter China.
Call it what you want but that war planning group leak via Signal seems to be more deliberate than hair-brained. If the idea was to send an unmistakable message to the Chinese about the quality of reckless audacity that now reigns in the White House, then the signal surely hit its mark. Think-tanks and analysts unanimously agree that the Asia-Pacific region is “perhaps the most precarious neighborhood on the globe”.
Finally, the fourth “no deal” is how the institutions of America are not fully agreeing with the national consolidation being operationalized by the federal government, seeing it as a violation of constitutional freedoms and guarantees.
It was the political economist Michael Todaro who once pointed out that the nature of the citizens and institutions of developing nations characterized why these countries were termed as “soft states”.
America is the world’s foremost nation not only in terms of its political and economic power but also because it is the leader of free democracies and is the living embodiment of power-sharing to prevent authoritarianism. The most classic illustration of this power-sharing was World War II when President Franklin Delano Roosevelt sought congressional approval before going into war with the Axis powers.
The institutions of America, unlike their counterparts in the developing nations, are “hard states”. As such, these institutions are bound to push back armed with all the legal powers that the Constitution provides. While the federal government may have a strategy to contain a foreign enemy, it will not only be fighting this foreign enemy but its own citizens as well if it does not employ a more balanced win-win strategy between its foreign and domestic policies.
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