New Delhi — Under the glittering chandeliers of Al Yamamah Palace in Riyadh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had inked a sweeping “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement.”
The ceremony, marked by full royal honors, came immediately after Israeli strikes on Qatar and followed the Arab–Islamic extraordinary summit in Doha. The bilateral defense pact has unsettled Washington and rattling capitals from New Delhi to Jerusalem.
Saudi and Pakistan, the long-time allies, have codified the bond into a mutual defence agreement.
“The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” a statement from the Pakistani prime minister’s office said.
The commitment echoes NATO-style security guarantees rarely seen in the Muslim world.
Following the pact Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif in a TV interview said, “this is an umbrella arrangement offered to one another by both sides: if there is aggression against either party, from any side, it will be jointly defended, and the aggression will be met with a response.”
The minister also said that the pact was open to other Arab countries, stressing the need to create an Islamic alliance similar to NATO.
A partnership deepens
The pact builds on decades of military, religious, and financial ties between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, the site of Islam’s holiest sites.
Pakistan has long stationed troops in Saudi Arabia, with current estimates placing the number at around 1,500 to 2,000. These soldiers provide training, operational support, and technical assistance to the Saudi military.
Nasim Zehra, a senior journalist and analyst based in Pakistan, said the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as “Pakistan’s strategic leap.”
She said Pakistan’s security presence in the Middle East dates back decades, rooted in Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s outreach in the early 1970s. Despite fluctuations, “ties remained unbroken.”
And with the recent agreement, Zehra says, “Islamabad has re-entered the Middle East not as a junior partner, but as a central security actor.”
“It reclaims the country’s earlier high-profile role in Middle Eastern security,” Zehra explained.
“For Saudi Arabia, the benefits [of the agreement] are equally clear. It diversifies security partnerships, no longer relying solely on the US. This time, Riyadh’s partner is a nuclear-armed Pakistan with proven strategic capabilities.”
What was once transactional is now institutionalized, encompassing joint deterrence, intelligence sharing, and, according to analysts, an implicit nuclear assurance given Pakistan’s status as the only Muslim-majority state with nuclear weapons.
On the pressing question, will Pakistan provide Saudi Arabia with a nuclear umbrella, Zehra noted, “given Islamabad’s doctrine of offensive defence and Israel’s repeated aggression, the answer is a likely yes. But for now, given strategic sensitivities, it won’t get a clear answer from either party.”
Saudi Arabia has long provided significant financial support to Pakistan, including during the key decades when Islamabad was developing its nuclear weapons program.
However, there has been no public evidence that it helped the latter to build a nuclear weapon in terms of technology transfer or active participation in bomb development.
Saudi’s financial support to Pakistan is widely acknowledged to have enabled it to continue its atomic program, particularly during periods of international sanctions and economic hardship.
Both governments insist the recent agreement is purely defensive and not aimed at any country. Yet experts remain unconvinced.
Highlighting Pakistan’s unique position in the Muslim world, Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Sanjay Kulkarni, a senior defence strategist and analyst based in Delhi, said “the nuclear bomb that Pakistan built was always projected as an Islamic bomb, ‘we will eat grass but the Islamic world must also have it.’ With this agreement, Saudi Arabia has virtually bought that insurance from Pakistan.”
Riyadh’s strategic calculus
Since the pact has come days after Israel attacked Qatar, a strong ally of the US, it seems that Saudi Arabia’s reliability on Washington as security guarantor is doubtful.
Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Kulkarni argues the pact must be understood against the backdrop of Israel’s recent strike on Qatar, a close US ally in the Middle East. “Probably some fear has sunk in across the region that the American guarantee is not a real guarantee. Even the finest aircraft presented to President Trump by Qatar did not translate into the kind of protection it expected,” Kulkarni observed.
By formalizing an agreement with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia signals to Israel and other hostile nations that it is no longer dependent on American security cover.
Praveen Donthi, senior analyst with International Crisis Group agrees that the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan was prompted by the Israeli strikes on Qatar, home to the largest American military base in the region.
He said that the agreement “exposed the complicity of the US and the futility of its security guarantees to its allies in the face of instability caused by Israeli actions. The agreement signals a desire to enhance security in a world facing great turmoil, where traditional security calculations are giving way to bold new alliances.”
India and South Asia: Rising anxiety
For India, the pact represents a major strategic headache as Saudi-backed Pakistan could feel emboldened in its posture over Kashmir and in future crises with India.
The idea that Pakistan’s military might enjoy a Saudi-endorsed “nuclear insurance” adds a new variable to South Asia’s fragile security balance.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that New Delhi would “study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability.”
The MEA stressed that India’s strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia has deepened considerably, and that both sides are expected to keep “mutual interests in mind.”
India and Saudi Arabia have established a Strategic Partnership Council that oversees their wide-ranging cooperation.
Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth-largest trading partner, and India is Saudi Arabia’s second-largest trade partner.
Bilateral trade between the two reached approximately USD 41.87 billion in FY 2024-25, with Indian exports at USD 11.75 billion and imports of USD 30.12 billion from Saudi Arabia.
However, given the agreement, Saudi Arabia’s financial and strategic support to Pakistan could increase the risk of missteps in the next South Asian crisis.
India and Pakistan have fought three major wars since their independence from British rule in 1947. The latest war between the two erupted in May 2025 after the deadly terror attack in Pahalgam on the Indian side of Kashmir that killed 26 tourists. New Delhi has squarely blamed Islamabad for orchestrating the assault, an accusation Pakistan continues to deny.
Against this backdrop, Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Kulkarni stresses the need for strategic prudence. “It is very important for India at this point of time to have good friends, strong partnerships, and to ensure that India stands on its own feet, that India is ‘Aatma Nirbhar’ (self-reliant) so that we can also assist the Global South,” he said.
Kulkarni says India is strong enough to protect its sovereignty but warned that it cannot rely on outside help. “We have to be very careful. Nobody will help India – that is the bottom line.”
In light of Pakistan presenting itself as the defender of the Muslim cause globally, Kulkarni cautioned that India, home to 200 million Muslims, “must be mindful of how its domestic situation is perceived internationally.”
“We must expose Pakistan as the hub of terror and for using terror as an instrument of state policy and simultaneously set our house in order, so that Pakistan ‘s ‘Muslim Ummah’ rhetoric doesn’t find global traction,” he stressed.
Kulkarni concluded by saying, “I hope some sense prevails in Pakistan and doesn’t use this agreement to destabilise South Asia.”
Praveen Donthi, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, noted that the pact poses a significant challenge for India.
“India, which subscribes to multialignment, will find this new defence pact challenging,” he said.
“It will have to make its relationship with Saudi Arabia, an important trading partner, immune from the toxic relationship it has with Pakistan,” Donthi explained.
Wider ripples
Beyond South Asia, the agreement sets a precedent for collective defence frameworks outside US-led security umbrellas.
Observers warn that other Muslim-majority countries could follow suit, creating new blocs that reshape Asia’s security architecture.
Pakistan has said that the agreement was open to other Arab nations to join and hinted that Riyadh would be under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella.
Pakistan defence minister Khawaja Asif, when asked whether the country’s nuclear assets were also guaranteed to Saudi as part of the agreement, told Geo TV during an interview: “What we have, our capabilities, will absolutely be available under this pact.”
Several countries in the Muslim World are likely to join the alliance amid growing tensions in the world especially West Asia.
Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the agreement as a positive step for regional security. He advocated for the inclusion of Iran, Iraq, and other Islamic countries to form a broader alliance.
“We assess this treaty as positive. Pakistan has announced that other countries can join, and I recommend that Iran also participate,” Safavi said as per Tehran Times. “Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iraq could move toward a collective pact.
The pact could also accelerate regional arms races, push India to recalibrate its Gulf strategy, and embolden Pakistan to adopt higher risk tolerance.
What lies ahead is highly uncertain as the pact is more than a bilateral arrangement. It signals structural change in both Gulf and South Asian security dynamics.
As some observers put it, the agreement compels India and its neighbors to rethink old alliances in a world where new power centers are emerging and escalation risks multiply.
International Crisis Group’s Donthi said, “there is potential for the Saudi-Pak pact to become a platform for trilateral cooperation with China, which has good relations with both countries.”
“India’s policy towards Israel will also be put to the test. It will have to dig deep into its diplomatic arsenal and employ manoeuvres to minimise the damage from this agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia,” he added.