Insights from Washington | Marcos Jr.’s “Goldilocks Challenge” against China’s intrusions

By Rodney Jaleco | Date 03-08-2024

WASHINGTON D.C. – The collision of Philippine and Chinese coast guard vessels – injuring four Filipino crew members in Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal on March 5 – underlined the growing perils of confrontations in the South China Sea, and the stakes to keep them from blowing up.

It was just the latest incident in a string of face-offs largely centered around a rusty World War II-vintage Philippine Navy transport ship that was intentionally marooned at Ayungin Shoal, 105 miles west of Palawan; and the marine-rich Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough) Shoal, about 120 miles west of Zambales Province. The encounters involved aggressive maneuvers that have occasionally led to minor collisions, swarming and drenching the smaller Philippine boats with water cannons. 

The Philippines has made it a point to declare the missions in advance. The latest clash happened as the 3rd ASEAN-Australia Summit began in Melbourne on March 4. The Ayungin Shoal incident ensured China’s threatening moves in the region remained top and center at the summit.

“Our effort in transparency initiative has been very successful in rallying support from the international community to condemn China’s illegal actions,” declared Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela. 

Playing the undeterred underdog has boosted the Philippine position – France was the latest to join a growing military coalition led by the United States and recent additions Japan and Australia that are slated to hold the largest-ever iteration of the Balikatan joint training exercise in the Philippines next month. 

The think-tank Rand Corporation published a series of studies for the US Air Force: the Feb. 22 paper “Managing Escalation” posed the “Goldilocks Challenge” – finding the “sweet spot of pressure points valuable enough to influence enemy decision-making but not so valuable [to] cause unacceptable retaliation”; and the Feb. 21 paper “US Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People’s Republic of China” identified the most viable “theories” as denial (persuading the enemy it’s unlikely to achieve its goals and fighting will not reverse failure) and cost-imposition (military force to convince the enemy the cost of war outweighs benefits).

Transposing the Rand Corporation’s hypothetical “Goldilocks Challenge” to the Philippines’ situation, Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s dilemma is how far and how long to push back against China. 

Philippine resolve in Ayungin Shoal and other disputed waters can potentially hurt China, especially if it results in a formidable, robust response from the US and her regional allies. China can ill afford distractions – persistent deflation, heavy corporate debt (131% of GDP, per the IMF), falling exports combined with slowing domestic demand, and weak growth (5.2% in 2023 is expected to decline 4.5% in 2024, 4.2% in 2025, per the World Bank) – as its central committee is forced to focus internally.  

Perhaps a barometer of life in Communist China today, the US Customs and Border Protection reported a surge of illegal Chinese migrants sneaking through the US-Mexico border – 37,000 arrested at the border in 2023, a tenfold increase from the previous year, making them the fastest growing group of illegals. 

That may be a distant concern in the Philippines’ western maritime frontier, but the Philippine Coast Guard faces the same problem of unwanted Chinese trying to cross our border.