Putting China’s Recent Sabina Shoal Actions in Proper Perspective 

By Col Dencio S. Acop (Ret), PhD, CPP | Date 08-30-2024

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS — It comes as no surprise that tensions continue to heat up in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China. The latest incident involving collisions between the Coast Guard vessels of both countries near Sabina Shoal has provoked the United States and indicates that Beijing is up to something in its resolute actions.

While the territorial disputes in the South China Sea have been around for a while and involve several countries, incidents in the most recent years indicate that China has singled out the Philippines to advance its dominance in the region. Informed observers currently believe the true aim of Beijing is to continue building artificial islands to legitimize its Ten-Dash Line claim and cement its dominance. Specifically building islands and structures in Philippine territory also advances its war footing strategy vis-à-vis Taiwan which it plans to invade in the near future.

This article analyzes why China chose the Philippines over other countries to advance its national interest. It also describes how China plans to use the Philippines to advance its strategic goals, especially in the near term. 

Among six other claimants to territories in the South China Sea, China chose the Philippines as the centerpiece for advancing its national interest in the region. This reality is not too surprising. What is surprising is the fact that Philippine authorities failed to anticipate and predict China’s actions.

First, American departure from their Philippine bases in 1992 quickly sent a signal of opportunity for the Chinese Communist Party to exploit, which it did. Chinese incursions into Philippine territory were cautious and gradual as they tested the resolve of governing political administrations. China’s biding of its time began to pay off when the Arroyo administration entertained its advances.

Unfortunately for Beijing, it was not so successful with the second Aquino administration which not only rejected its advances but filed a winning arbitration ruling from the international tribunal in 2016. And fortunately for the CCP, it was a lot more successful with the corrupt Duterte administration which catered to Chinese national interest more than its own.

The advantages, however unrightfully, now enjoyed by Beijing are due to the concessions freely given by the Duterte administration. While Beijing may claim that it too gave concessions to that administration in return, none of it truly benefited the Philippine national interest.  

Second, the geopolitical significance of the Philippines is impossible to ignore. The Philippines falls right smack in the middle of the South China Sea in the Asia-Pacific region.

Early westward voyages through the Pacific and easterly sojourns from the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca would not miss the entirety of the 7,641 islands of the Philippine archipelago. Colonized by Spain in 1521 and America in 1901, the Philippines has unparalleled socio-economic and geopolitical advantages. Economically, the archipelago offers vast riches in marine, aquatic, and mineral resources. Geopolitically, it offers strategic advantages in defense and maritime trade.

For instance, the Philippines’ location goes a long way towards legitimizing and solidifying China’s aim to extend its territory if Beijing is able to build artificial islands and physically control the area. Moreover, China will benefit from the proximity to Taiwan offered by the Philippines.

Taiwan, which the CCP plans to invade in the near future, is a mere 159 kilometers away from the Philippine border. To the end of defense strategies and military tactics advancing the national interest, China will want to be as close to Taiwan as it can get in order to more effectively launch its attack missiles and invasion forces.

Militarily, a robust presence in the Philippines can be used to block reinforcements coming from the east-southeast while invasion forces attack Taiwan in the north-northwest. This presence could also support the main effort in the north. What worries Beijing is the pushback from the United States which is a key ally of the Philippines. I think the CCP is playing a gamble trying to accelerate its artificial constructions at the Sabina Shoal to better establish strategic control.

The reason why Chinese militia and coast guard vessels have had no let-up with allowing the Philippine resupply of its Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal is because the outpost lies right along the path to Sabina Shoal from the Spratlys, where China already has an established artificial military base. The Chinese vessels have no problem with the Philippine coast guard or military; but they do have a problem with American warships patrolling the waters. This is why Beijing is using both diplomatic channels, however flawed their logic, and militia force to advance its goals.

Third, China sees the Philippines as the weakest in the region, both politically and militarily. As earlier discussed, this point became more apparent after the US abandoned its Philippine military bases in 1991.

Observers are not entirely wrong when they cite that the Philippine military has not been able to modernize because it was both too dependent upon the US and too long engaged in a protracted war with domestic insurgents. Applying Sun Tzu’s strategy in dealing with the Philippines, China has exploited its vast superiority to overwhelm a much weaker opponent.

People who acquiesce to this reality are those who adopt the position that appeasing China is the better option than fighting it. They remind us of leaders like Lord Chamberlain and Marshal Petain who tried to appease Hitler in 1940. They remind us of ex-president Duterte and all his administration cohorts who did just that. If the Philippines today is facing a possible invasion by a regional power from a weak spot, Filipinos should know whom to make accountable. 

Finally, it is interesting to note for the record that while Beijing does all the bullying at the expense of Manila despite an international tribunal ruling trashing the Ten Dash Line claim, Beijing has it all in reverse if its foreign ministry pronouncements are to be believed.

For example, in the latest incident on August 22nd, 2024, China’s foreign ministry announced that “two Philippine military aircraft trespassed into (Chinese) airspace near Nansha Island”. It added that “the Chinese side took necessary countermeasures in accordance with the law, in order to protect its own sovereignty and security”.

Furthermore, it described its actions as “professional, restrained, and standardized” and that “China will continue to firmly protect its own territorial sovereignty and maritime rights, and firmly oppose any infringing actions”.

For the global record, all of China’s words, especially the key ones, are true; but only if stated in reverse. I do not know where China gets the gall to officially lie to the world and smile about it. All I know is that all decent-loving people in the world should not take it lying down but expose it widely and openly.

Perhaps, China is also counting on media algorithms exacerbated by quantum AI to drown out the voice of truth so that only its lies can be heard. To this the world must also push back and say “enough is enough”.

Hereon, we will fight with our words if we cannot fight with our weapons. We will weaponize our words to fight for truth in the same way that China has weaponized words to fight for its lies.