How to become a ‘Middle Power’ state

A Philippine flag is raised on one of the northernmost naval outposts in Batanes. Photos from Philippine Navy. 

By Manuel Mogato | Date 02-17-2024

 

MANILA — The Philippines is rushing to become a middle power, joining other states in the Indo-Pacific region and earning a degree of respectability.

It planned to spend ₱19 trillion in the next ten years to upgrade its antiquated military firepower, mobility, and communications.

In particular, it wanted conventional submarines, multi-role fighters, and medium-range missiles to develop a minimum credible defense capability. The Philippines lags behind other major Southeast Asian states in operating submarines and fighters.

But is the Philippines ready to become a middle power?

In international relations, a middle power is a sovereign state that has some influence and international recognition.

An Italian thinker, Giovanni Botero, coined the term in the 16th century to describe European states that have sufficient strength to stand on their own without the need for help from others.

In short, the Philippines is tired of getting bullied by big powers, like China, in the disputed waters in the South China Sea.

It wanted respect as a nation, like Indonesia which has the power to sink Chinese fishing boats without fear of reprisal.

The other reason China was thinking twice before getting into a fight with the Philippines was the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) it had with the United States.

China, of course, does not want an armed confrontation with the United States, in case its closest ally, the Philippines, invokes the MDT.

The Philippines must go slow on its military modernization program, giving priority to preparations to become a middle power state in the next two decades.

It must first develop the military’s capacity to operate submarines and multi-role fighters, focusing on training and preparing the necessary physical facilities and logistics. 

Otherwise, it will be like driving around a Porsche without proper training and logistics.

It would be better for the country to get a Toyota sedan to practice driving on an unpaved road. Otherwise, it would be wasting an expensive Porsche if it breaks down or crashes on a bad road.

Operating a diesel-electric submarine is not easy. It will take more than a decade to train a crew to operate and maintain a conventional submarine.

A few countries, like Canada, France, India, and South Korea, have started training Philippine Navy sailors for submarine duties but the Philippines would need a large pool of talents of submariners.

In the same manner, the Air Force would need a big pool of pilots to fly supersonic jets to be able to operate F-16s and other variants of multi-role fighters.

Perhaps, the Air Force could start acquiring flight simulators and lead-in fighter training (LIFT), like FA-50s from South Korea or the Czech-manufactured L-39NG.

Perhaps, before acquiring the Swedish Gripen JAS-39 or the United States F16s, the Air Force can invest in FA-50s or L-39NGs as transition aircraft.

However, the Philippines should avoid acquiring aircraft and vessels on a piecemeal basis. It must insist on a package of equipment that includes, training, maintenance, spares, and a steady supply of logistics. 

The Air Force must learn from past mistakes when contracting military equipment.

Last year, the fleet of FA-50 light fighters was grounded because the Air Force could not get spare parts to replace broken ones.

Only three FA-50s remained operational due to a lack of spares, while only one S-211 trainer jet is flying for the same reason.

The Philippines has a poor record in military procurement. It cannot afford to acquire the $2.4 billion US offer of 12 F16s, settling for the $1.2 billion offer from Sweden for JAS39 Gripen.

However, it is uncertain if Sweden still produces spares for the Gripen model.

The F16s offer could be expensive, but it has sufficient spares and more countries are operating the aircraft.

Thus, in the long run, the F16s would be a better option for the Philippines.

The F16s could still be acquired in the second half of the 10-year third horizon plan of the modernization program.

The defense department can go for the additional FA-50s or the L-39NGs to ensure fighter pilots would have sufficient proficient flying time to operate the more modern and sophisticated F16s.

The Philippines needs training and more preparations in terms of facilities before rushing to become a middle power state in a couple of years.