Security Perspective | Where Does China’s Gray Zone Operations Lead To?

By Col Dencio S. Acop (Ret), PhD  | Date 03-11-2024

MANILA – The Philippine government’s transparency initiatives have exposed China’s gray zone operations in the South China Sea in recent months. 

In her research for the think tank Stratbase Group, Joyce Reyes described in detail how China’s information warfare operates in the Philippines. 

China has been manipulating narratives to skew them in favor of China’s grabbing of Philippine islets and natural resources in the West Philippine Sea as if these were Chinese properties to defend.

It has been able to do so through the machinations of “Chinese political leaders and groups who then connect with Filipino political leaders, media operators, and key opinion leaders”. 

Reyes’ study added that the manipulated messaging would then be “sent to authentic and most especially inauthentic, or fake social media followers and networks, which  further amplify China’s desired narrative online until it reaches the general public, who, the operators hope, would voluntarily proliferate the message they initiated”. 

Not surprisingly, the study found that China was able to do all these from 2016 to 2022 while pro-China former President Rodrigo Duterte was in power. 

Lifting words from the study, “China was able to successfully spread disinformation, influence, and skew the Philippine foreign affairs, military, and economic policies to its favor, and propagate a benevolent image in the country while continuously conducting aggressive and coercive actions in the West Philippine Sea”.

It has done so through the machinations of “Chinese political leaders and groups who then connect with Filipino political leaders, media operators, and key opinion leaders.”

It must be appreciated that before armed hostilities may ensue, soft approaches like diplomacy, gray zone operations like swarming, blasting of water cannons, and illegitimate blockades could first occur. They have occurred in the case of China’s unilateral declaration of ownership of almost the entire South China Sea through its Ten-Dash Line claim. 

As borne out by the 2016 Arbitral Ruling, China’s claims were deemed unfounded. The Ten-Dash Line goes against international law (UNCLOS) and other claimant countries, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines. 

With the failure of its idealist approach to international relations and its losing battle against the transparency initiative launched by the Philippines, China has nevertheless followed through with the gains acquired during the Duterte administration. 

For one, it has military installations already built on Subi Reef and Mischief Reef, which can no longer be dismantled without losing face.  For another and perhaps more important reason, China’s economy has been on the downswing these recent years. 

The tons of fish freely harvested from ‘foreign’ sources are now considered indispensable to feed a billion people. 

The installations were put up to secure safe passage for these resources as well as support future military operations against Taiwan, a mere 1,205 kilometers away.

The current Filipino leader is not a fan of China. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is more of a fan of the United States than his father. 

Because of all his recognized weaknesses, including his questioning of legitimacy, Marcos Jr. is not an idiot. 

His re-pivot to America is a calculated domestic and international strategy. 

By doing so, he protects himself from Dutertes, whose real champion is the vice president, Sara Duterte. 

He is also waging his bets against a powerful China by bringing on board the US, Japan, India, Australia, and all other champions of the liberal order to protect their systems against a resurrected authoritarian alternative led by China.

So, what are the growing odds? In information warfare, even the best disinformation systems antagonist whose selling product is lies ultimately pales compared to a truth-based protagonist. 

Evidence-based realities eventually bear out the empirical supports ultimately demanded by public judgments to be logically accepted. 

In terms of guns, those of the United States alone already outgun China. The only resource where China outguns the US is warm bodies comprising the People’s Liberation Army.

While defense numbers still favor the global superpower, numbers alone do not count for much in the actual scheme of realities on the modern battlefield. 

Just the fact that nuclear warheads are found in the arsenals of both China and the US, which is already more than sufficient cause for grave concern by the world. 

The unfortunate truth is that the numbers have continued.

Agence France-Presse reported that Beijing is bent on repeating its 7.2 percent increase in defense spending this year “as hostility over Taiwan and the South China Sea grows.” 

This level of the defense budget ($231.4 billion) is second only to the US ($877 billion). 

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) reports that China had “410 nuclear warheads in 2023, an increase of 60 from the year before”. 

Beijing is trying to play catch-up to “Washington’s 3,708 and Moscow’s 4,489”.

Just very recently, the Manila Times reported how the Chinese Coast Guard once again caused collisions with chartered boats Unaizah May 4 and Unaizah May 1 out to resupply stationed Filipino soldiers at the Ayungin Shoal. 

Reportedly, another boat in the resupply convoy was water-cannoned, injuring four crew members. 

The Chinese said they did it against the Filipinos’ “illegal intrusion.” 

Ayungin Shoal in the Spratly Islands is 120 nautical miles from Philippine shores and lies within the country’s exclusive economic zone and claimed territory. 

While its gray zone operations in the West Philippine Sea have heated up, it appears that the Philippines may not be China’s ultimate target in its most recent aggressions, but rather Taiwan. 

The grand strategy of China is to take Taiwan back to cement its regional hegemony. 

As separatist activities aimed at “Taiwan independence” continue, the Chinese Communist Party is turning up the heat around its installations in the waters between the Philippines and Taiwan.

Marcos is worried and has insisted on a hotline between himself and Xi Jinping in case some hothead from either side accidentally pulls the trigger and ignites an incident beyond gray zone operations.